How we estimate

What our balloon words and numbers mean, where they come from, and who makes the real decision each morning. Every flight chance you see here is our estimate, never a guarantee.

The next 7 mornings

Cappadocia Balloon Flights, our own booking site, publishes a flight outlook for the next 7 mornings, updated through the day. Where the home page and the dates calendar show it, they show its words (likely to fly, borderline, unlikely, not forecast yet) and a bar for each, never a number.

A forecast, not a guarantee. The official go/no-go for each morning is set under the rules of Turkey’s civil aviation authority (SHGM); your operator tells you.

It doesn’t choose your morning

Your plan uses our own estimate, described below, so your best morning and its chance can differ from the outlook’s bar.

A window that moves

The outlook covers the next 7 mornings, so it moves forward every day, and mornings further out say “not forecast yet”. When it can’t be reached, or hasn’t been updated for 12 hours, we hide it instead of guessing.

Full outlook on cappadociaballoonflights.com, opens in a new tabOur own booking site

Further ahead

Beyond the outlook, a flight chance is the usual rate for the month, in words: “usually about N in 10” means that about N of every 10 mornings in that month flew, by the official count.

Official count, 2025223 of 365

Balloons flew on 223 of the 365 days of 2025, by the official count of the Kapadokya Slot Service Center (Kapadokya Slot Hizmet Merkezi).

Official figure from the Center’s bulletin for 2025, opens in a new tab, read 16 Oct 2026.

How the monthly rates are made

  • Each month’s rate comes from the official flight-day counts of the Kapadokya Slot Service Center (Kapadokya Slot Hizmet Merkezi, SHM), Kapadokya University, operating under SHGM authorisation.
  • We divide a month’s flight days by its number of days, and average the years on record (July 2025 to September 2026).
  • December has no official figure yet, so its rate is still sample data, and labelled “Sample data” wherever it shows.
The official flight days, month by monthMore on our data and methods

Best and backup

Each night you stay gives one balloon morning, the morning after it. We put your flight on an early one, so a later one stays free in case it’s cancelled. With two balloon mornings, that’s the first; with three, the better of the first two.

We don’t add your mornings up into one chance, because bad weather often lasts several days.

  1. Mon 10 MaySunrise 05:34First dayNo balloon morning yet: it takes a night here first.
  2. Tue 11 MaySunrise 05:33Best balloon morningYour flight goes on your first full morning. The chance for a morning like this is about 5 in 10, by our estimate.
  3. Wed 12 MaySunrise 05:32Backup, kept freeKept free in case the flight on Tue 11 May is cancelled.

From the example plan for a couple, Mon 10 – Wed 12 May 2027. Sample data

Who decides

An estimate, not a guarantee. The official go/no-go for each morning is set under the rules of Turkey’s civil aviation authority (SHGM), not by us; your operator tells you.

Who sets it
The go/no-go for each morning is set under SHGM rules. Even on a go morning, the pilot and the operator decide whether a flight takes off.
How you hear
From your operator, usually the evening before or at pickup.
What SkyPlan knows
SkyPlan has no go/no-go board and doesn’t receive the decision. Our outlook and our estimates are not the decision.
What changes in your plan
Plan B opens only after an official cancellation or your operator’s notice, and your backup morning stays free. Your bookings never change by themselves: a new date or a refund is agreed with the provider, on their terms.
How balloon flights are decided

Seasons

Season levels, not live prices. When two weeks tie on their best balloon morning, the lower season wins.

  • Low season, November to FebruaryFlights are much cheaper, per the Cappadocia representative of the Turkish travel agencies’ association (TÜRSAB).
  • Shoulder season, MarchOur sample estimate, between low and high: no source covers these months yet.
  • High season, April to OctoberPer a Cappadocia balloon operator. Prices rise from May to mid-October, per TÜRSAB’s Cappadocia representative.
See which weeks fly best

Sunrise and sunset

Calculated for Göreme for each date. Every plan is timed to that day’s sun: the balloon morning starts before sunrise, each evening ends at a sunset point, and walks end before dark.

Tue 11 May 2027 in Göreme: sunrise 05:33, sunset 19:42
Sunrise Sunset
  • Dawn
  • Day
  • Golden hour
  • Night

Sources

Official flight days, 2025
The Kapadokya Slot Service Center’s bulletin for 2025.Read 16 Oct 2026, opens in a new tab
The next 7 mornings
Flight outlook by Cappadocia Balloon Flights, our own booking site.
Monthly rates
Calculated from the Center’s monthly flight days (July 2025 to September 2026).December has no official figure yet, so its rate is still sample data, and labelled “Sample data” wherever it shows.
Seasons
TÜRSAB’s Cappadocia representative and a Cappadocia balloon operator; the months no source covers are our sample estimate.
Sunrise and sunset
Calculated for Göreme for each date with the NOAA solar calculator.
Places, prices and hours
Every price and opening hour shows where it comes from and when it was last checked. Anything marked sample data is a placeholder until we have checked it.Where our data comes from

How this page was made

Drafted with AI from our dataset and the sources named on this page. A person has not checked it yet.

Last updated 18 Oct 2026

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